My First Cards

Lonnie Smith was no longer a Phillie by the time this card was on the market; he was busy helpin’ the Cardinals turn into a champion.

Before that though, Lonnie was nearly Rookie of the Year in 1980, helpin’ his Phillies become champions for the first time in their long history. He did his part, by producing a 130 OPS+, hitting .339/.397/.443, and earning 2.6 WAR in 100 games.

He continued to get better in ’81, hitting .324/.402/.472, increasing his OPS+ to 144. In a 162 games between ’80 & strike-shortened ’81, he stole 54 bases, as the Phillies made the playoffs once again.

All this made him a popular young player with a lot of upside, but the Phillies felt they needed to make some changes. Changes like a fresher catcher to replace the aging Bob Boone. To get that, they sent Lonnie to divisional rival St Louis as part of a three team trade that brought All-Star catcher Bo Diaz to Philadelphia from the Indians.

This trade worked out quite well for the Cardinals. By April 24, Lonnie had already matched his career high in home runs, and had 2 more RBI’s than he did in 1981′s entire season! The team was 13-3 by this point, and there was no doubt leadoff Lonnie was part of why they were leading off the season so hot.

This hot start featured a 3 game sweep of the Phillies from April 16-18, where Lonnie went 7-for-14, three of which went for extra bases. His very first time to bat against his former team, he smacks a triple and scored the first run of the game when the next batter (Tommy Herr) hit a sac fly. Next day he smacked a double in his first AB, stole third, and scored on another sac fly. He started off the 3rd game in a familiar way… single, and ended up scoring on another sac fly.

How’s that for making your old team wish they kept you? heh. This trade was already lookin’ like a bad deal for Philadelphia and it wasn’t even May yet.

Lonnie would have some other great games during the season too, like the 5 RBI day on April 10 against Pirates, the 5 runs scored game on July 4th against the Cubs, and the 3 walks on July 27 against the Mets.

None of them really compared to September 4, 1982 at Candlestick Park though, which helped earn him NL player of the week honors. Not only did Lonnie go 3-for-3 with a walk and a hit by pitch while scoring 3 runs, but he stole 5 bases in a single game without getting caught. From 1920 to 1982, this had only been accomplished twice. TWICE—Once in 1927 by Johnny Neun and once in 1971 by Amos Otis. Lonnie was the first to do it in the National League.

Five steals in a game was the record for steals in a single game at the time, and remained the record for another 14 years. Even now, only two players have swiped more than 5 in a game, Eric Young (6 steals on 6/30/1996) and Carl Crawford (6 steals on 5/3/2009).

By the end of the ’82 regular season, Lonnie had stolen 68 bases, which was good for 3rd in the majors that season behind only Henderson & Raines. He’d also scored 120 runs, hit .307/.381/.434, earned 5.9 WAR, led the league with 9 HBP, posted a 128 OPS+, and made the All-Star team. All this, helped him come in 2nd in the MVP voting. Oh yeah, and he continued to hit the Phillies fine— .361/.446/.472 in 83 plate appearances, and scoring 15 runs in 18 games.

He started the playoffs in a slump though, before he broke out of it in game 3 of the World Series, going 2-for-4 and scoring twice, including an exciting 7th inning triple that forced an error helpin’ him to score. He really did a number on the Brewers pitching in game 7, going 3-for-5, scoring 2 runs, and driving in another. One of his runs, was the tying run, and the other, was a bottom of the 8th insurance run putting the Cards up 5-3.

It all makes me wonder what the Phillies were thinking about all this…

See, Lonnie was worth 5.9 WAR in ’82 (meaning about 5.9 victories) and the Cardinals won the division over the Phillies by just 3 games. Would the Phillies have won the division if they didn’t trade him away?

Think about it. We know the Phillies went to the playoffs every year from 1980-1983, except in 1982, so they definitely had the talent and experience to win a division. If the Phils kept Lonnie and Bob Boone (’cause they wouldn’t have had Diaz so they wouldn’t have sold off Bob), they would have kept a few wins from St Louis. If we assume the Phillies would’ve played Lonnie instead of George Vukovich during ’82 (based on the fact Von Hayes replaced George’s spot on the field after one year)—

It looks like the Phillies actually gave away 8.7 wins and replaced it with 4.4, a difference of 4.3 wins. If Philadelphia hadn’t traded Lonnie, it appears they would’ve/could’ve won 4 more games in ’82 and they would have won the division by 1 game, even if the Cardinals found a way to win as many games.

Of course, if St Louis didn’t get Lonnie Smith on November 20, 1981, they probably wouldn’t have traded outfielder Sixto Lezcano for Ozzie Smith in December ’81. Sixto had a massive 7.2 WAR in ’82.

Figuring his WAR would stay the same even if he wasn’t traded, and adding Gary Templeton’s 2.7 WAR (who would’ve never been traded to San Diego either), the Cardinals would’ve gotten 9.9 WAR out of the LF & SS position. That happens to be exactly the same amount they actually got from Lonnie (5.9) & Ozzie (4.0) anyway.

So the Cardinals apparently wouldn’t have won more less in ’82 if this trade didn’t happen. Yet, the Phillies, arguably would’ve ended up winning 4 extra games (1 more game than St Louis), if the Lonnie Smith trade never happened.

This isn’t an exact science, ’cause there’s so many other factors involved (injuries, coaching, etc), but in general, it appears the trade affected the Phillies win total in a negative way, that may have cost them a division title and possibly a 2nd World Championship in early 80′s. Perhaps it might’ve resulted in an exciting one-game playoff between St Louis & Philadelphia that October.

Maybe in some alternate universe, I’m writing about how the Cardinals could’ve won the 1982 World Series if they’d pulled the trigger and traded for Lonnie Smith. Maybe…